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	<title>Paul Russell&#039;s Blog</title>
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	<link>http://paulrussell.org</link>
	<description>Ramblings from a tech junkie...</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Wed, 22 Jun 2011 15:23:45 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>Barry is Alive!!!</title>
		<link>http://paulrussell.org/sports/barry-is-alive/</link>
		<comments>http://paulrussell.org/sports/barry-is-alive/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 22 Jun 2011 15:18:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>matouka</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Quant]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sports]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stats]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AFL]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tipping]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://paulrussell.org/?p=192</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[What is Barry? Well Barry is an experiment really. He is an idea that I started years ago in an Excel Spreadsheet but revisited the concept a couple of weeks ago. Basically, it is an algorithm who&#8217;s sole aim is to provide an emotion free suggestion as to who should win each game and an [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>What is <a href="http://robobarry.com">Barry</a>? Well Barry is an experiment really. He is an idea that I started years ago in an Excel Spreadsheet but revisited the concept a couple of weeks ago.</p>
<p>Basically, it is an algorithm who&#8217;s sole aim is to provide an emotion free suggestion as to who should win each game and an estimate of how sure it is.</p>
<p>It does this by taking previous results and using them to attempt to determine the result of this week&#8217;s matchs. Wow that was vague! In general terms it tries to learn from the past.</p>
<p>Until I add more variable, at this point there is only one thing that you can adjust. You can determine how quickly the algorithm learns and adjusts to the most recent results.</p>
<p>As I&#8217;m sure you would expect, you don&#8217;t want the system to have the memory of a goldfish, but at the same time there isn&#8217;t much point remembering what happened 10 years ago.</p>
<p>So you should find that there is a &#8220;Sweet Spot&#8221; somewhere in between.</p>
<p>I have sent the system up to load the &#8220;Learning Rate&#8221; to the historically best performing one.</p>
<p>As you&#8217;ll understand this is a VERY new system and will need development and more testing. Right now <a href="http://robobarry.com">AFL Tips</a> are only available, but I have preliminary tested the NBA and am looking to add the NRL and Cricket.</p>
<p>Have fun, and love to see what you think.</p>


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